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The Sino-US Competition: The Ultimate Competition under the Fifth Technological and Industrial Revolution of MankindPrint
Post Time：2018-08-31来源：TusHoldings
WANG Jiwu, As an influential scholar in macroeconomics, corporate governance and technological innovation, Mr. WANG Jiwu has unique innovative thinking. And his related papers have received wide attention. He has published many books, with some of his theories and models, such as “Unification of Corporate Rights”, “Clustering Innovation” and “Three-dimension Triple Helix”, being successfully used in the fields of the governance of large holding enterprises and the development of strategic emerging industries with extensive influence.I. Laws in the first four industrial revolutions of mankind
Table 1. Overview of the first, second, third and fourth industrial revolutions of mankind
After reviewing the occurrence and development of the previous industrial revolutions and considering the current global social and economic development situations, we can easily find out the following laws and rules:
(I) The previous industrial revolutions met in turn the escalating demands of mankind
Table 2. Industrial Revolutions vs. Main Demands of Mankind
(II) Technological revolution is not equal to industrial revolution, and the occurrence of industrial revolutions depends on transfer and commercialization of scientific research findings and the building of industrial infrastructures
The occurrence of industrial revolutions depends on scientific and technological innovation brought about by technological revolution and research. However, all technological innovations cannot become the technical foundations of an industrial revolution and they will not all certainly bring about an industrial revolution. For example, the four inventions of China, respectively gunpowder, papermaking, printing and the compass, did not bring about industrial revolution; for another example, large-sized computers appeared long ago, but only Jobs and innovators in the same time as him brought mankind from the age of expensive and large-sized computers only a few company can afford to the age of cheap desktop computer, so that computers went into many families like other commodities. In other words, the industrial revolution can hardly occur by virtue of individual technological breakthroughs or growth of individual industries, but can occur by virtue of centralized and wide application of many new technologies. That is to say, an industrial revolution occurs only if traditional industries are widely reconstructed and upgraded by new technologies or only if new industrial systems are formed to lead to wide “qualitative” changes in most industries.
On the one hand, successful application of technologies to industrial development relies on the effective transfer and commercialization of scientific research findings. For example, in the third industrial revolution, although the British scientist Faraday discovered first the phenomenon of electromagnetic induction, it was Germans and Americans who widely applied this research finding to production methods. As another example, British scientists first invented the technology of extracting compounds from coal, but heavy chemical industry was established only after Bismarck introduced the technology to Germany through the “Thousand Talents Program”. As a third example, although the UK has a longer history of scientific research, Germany and the United States pay more attention to applied technologies and applied research institutes such as research institutes of Bell, Edison and Siemens, and launch effective “industrial polices” to actively introduce and support technological application, so that the research finding to commercialization cycle in Germany and the United States is at least 3-5 years shorter than that in the UK.
On the other hand, certain infrastructures are also necessary conditions for occurrence of industrial revolution. For example, infrastructures such as canals, dams and the square field system in the agricultural industry during the agricultural revolution guaranteed the farming activities and production organization forms in China at that time. The cotton supply and textile sales brought by marine triangular trade and the East India sea route was a necessary condition for the occurrence of the second industrial revolution in the UK; the corresponding “navy fleet” that protected the slave trade, cotton transport and textile product dumping was also a necessary infrastructure for effective maintenance of the industrial system; driven by the governments, Germany and the United States built the two classes of infrastructures required by the third industrial revolution, in which the hardware included highways, railways, mines, power plants and power grids, and the software included social security systems, public compulsory education systems and universities of science and technology. Information industry infrastructures built by the United States and China, such as satellite network, Internet, optical fiber network and power transmission network, also provided guarantees for the rapid development of information industry in the United States and China.
(III) Occurrence of industrial revolutions requires a certain market scale because only the existence of large-scale demand can effectively bring about industrial revolution
A certain scale of market demand is a necessary condition for the occurrence of an industrial revolution because large-scale production depends on the large-scale demand. The first industrial revolution took place in ancient Egypt, ancient India, Babylon and China, the birthplace of human civilization with the most concentrated population, taking more than 2/3 of the total population in the world at that time. During the second industrial revolution, the UK had a high population of about 5.5-10 million, and had huge overseas colonies to create demand, while the Netherlands had a population of 1.5 million only. Moreover, by the middle of the 19th century, a world market centered on the UK had formed. During the third industrial revolution, the populations of Germany and the United States were 80 million and 100 million respectively. On the eve of World War I, the electrical products export volume of Germany accounted for nearly 50% of the total electrical products export volume in the world. In the era of the information industry revolution, the United States has a population of at least 300 million and China has a population of 1.4 billion. Other countries with relatively low populations such as the UK, France, and Germany have shown a trend of slower development in relation to the United States and China. In particular, the United States, if not compared with China but comparison with the UK, France, Germany, Japan and Russia, is obviously developing at a greater pace.
The occurrence of industrial revolutions also depends on the availability of qualified laborers on a certain scale. Before the second industrial revolution, British manual workshops spread rapidly and trained a large number of skilled workers to give them the required experience. Their production experience directly drove the invention of various machines. During the third industrial revolution, Germany continuously increased national investment in education, strengthened the combination of teaching, research and production, and trained a large number of outstanding scientific and technological talents and high-quality laborers in engineering, agronomy, and chemistry. The United States attracted a large number of foreign immigrants during the industrial revolution. From 1820 to 1860, about 50 million immigrants came to the United States from Europe, China, Latin America and other countries or regions, who not only brought advanced scientific knowledge and production technology to the industrial revolution, but also significantly expanded the national population and domestic market. In addition to immigration, rapid urbanization also created a large number of workers for the industrial revolution. Besides, from the middle to late 20th century to the present, the United States has transferred, in the form of overseas OEMs, much low-value-added labor to labor-intensive countries such as those in Asia and Latin America, which greatly increased the size of its actual labor pool.
(IV) The occurrence of an industrial revolution needs transnational collaboration
The occurrence of industrial revolutions needs favorable conditions in opportunities, circumstances and support of people as well as global collaboration. From the previous industrial revolutions, we can see collaboration at different levels such as state governance, technical cooperation, and production networks.
The collaboration between the UK and the Netherlands at the level of state governance laid a foundation for the smooth advancement of the second industrial revolution. Before 1688, the Dutch fleet, under the leadership of the famous general Mitchell, defeated France and almost destroyed the British fleet. In the so-called “glorious revolution”, the Dutch governor led the Dutch navy to land in England and assumed the throne peacefully, resulting in two sovereigns at the same time, namely William and his British wife Mary.
The Dutchman William III is very similar to Emperor Taizong of Tang Dynasty and Emperor Yongle of Ming Dynasty in China, who got their sovereignty by unusual or even improper means, and tried to prove their merit and legitimacy with civil and military achievements. Subsequently, the UK and its “old rival” Netherlands became friends, and the British and Dutch fleets jointly defeated French fleet and Spanish fleet in succession, so that the UK and Netherlands successfully obtained the right to navigate through the Strait of Gibraltar and the Mediterranean, obtained colonies in America and India, and obtained the right to trade cargos and slaves with colonies of Spain, laying an important foundation for the smooth advancement of the industrial revolution. The development of hand-made textile industry in the UK relied on technology transfer from the Netherlands, and the infrastructure of global trade, that is the navy, came from the union of the UK and the Netherlands. Besides, East India Company and the British companies established by England also absorbed a large amount of capital from the Netherlands.
In 1789, a British textile technician named Samuel Slater stole the blueprints for British textile machine technology and then built the first factory in the United States, becoming the father of the American Industrial Revolution (of course, the British called him a traitor). After that, industrial spies supported by government or others, such as Thomas Digges and Francis Lowell, systematically stole the core technologies of the second industrial revolution from the UK. Although such act of the Americans was not honorable and the British were unwilling to see it, it objectively helped to transfer the British technology to the United States and promoted the completion of the second industrial revolution in the United States at the beginning of the 19th century. (This history of technological and commercial espionage has arguably made the United States more sensitive to industrial espionage.)
The third industrial revolution was almost started at the same time in several advanced countries and was completed under the cross promotion among these countries. Thus, wide bloom replaced single thriving. Major inventions of a country were quickly absorbed by other countries, leading to cross promotion and quick development.
Competition and collaboration between German and the UK. The world-leading cable industry technologies and chemical industry technologies of Germany were introduced from the UK, in a situation known as “blooming in the UK, fruiting in Germany”. The success of Germany in the organic chemical industry was achieved, to a great extent, using the market provided under the free trade of the UK and by virtue of British breakthroughs in new technologies such as chemical engineering (at that time the UK was the largest market in the organic chemical industry). In addition, some chemical and pharmaceutical companies in Germany such as Hearst and Siemens also directly invested in the UK. Besides, Germany also used the cheap production materials from the UK such as iron, yarn and machinery for its market exploration.
During the Meiji Restoration, Japan introduced technologies, developed capitalist industry and commerce and started the industrial revolution using the German model. The Japanese government strongly advocated the development of the cotton textile industry, the building of model factories, and purchasing of machinery from overseas countries, and encouraged private investment. Taking the slogan of “seeking knowledge in the world”, it actively recruited skilled scientists and experts from the UK, the United States, Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy, Switzerland and other countries, and effectively utilized technologies from other countries, especially technologies from Germany and the UK. In addition, it also sent a large number of officials, technicians and students to study in western countries such as Germany, and engaged German experts to build chemical research institutes, chemical factories, and factories of cement, iron and other metals, especially arsenals.
The global production network formed since the fourth industrial revolution is an intrinsic reason why China and the United States must collaborate with each other. China is tied up with the United States has led to a significant level of transfer from the US information industry and technology to China. The information industry revolution started in the 1970s. Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping united China with the United States to resist the Soviet Union at an appropriate and important moment. The opening-up launched by Deng Xiaoping is mainly an opening-up to the United States. During the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, China kept a low profile, and grasped the two strategic opportunities brought by “anti-terrorism” and “financial crisis 2008” after the fall of the Soviet Union to realize deep binding with the United States and synchronization in the fourth industrial revolution. When Obama and Trump came to power, they realized that but it was too late.
(V) Different effects of industrial revolutions on “urbanization”
Industrial revolutions have not only brought about great economic development, but also brought about major changes in social structure, including “urbanization”. However, different industrial revolutions had different effects on the direction of urbanization.
The second industrial revolution and the third industrial revolution drove the rapid development of urbanization in the world, enabling mankind to fully complete the transition from agricultural society to industrial society and from rural society to urban society. Although as early as 5000 BC small towns and cities appeared in a few Neolithic villages in the basins of the Nile River in Egypt and the Mesopotamian plains, worldwide urbanization was not developed until the second and the third industrial revolutions that were characterized by satisfaction of demands for housing and traveling.
Table 3. Effects of industrial revolutions in some countries on urbanization (Unit: %)
The second industrial revolution promoted the expansion of existing cities and the rise of new industrial cities because of the rise of machine production and factory systems, but it did not lead to a qualitative change in “housing” and “traveling”. The rapid development of the communication industry and transport industry arising from the devices and equipment developed in the third industrial revolution, such as electric lamp, telephone, electric appliance, automobile, train, expressway and railway, further strengthened the convenient links between cities and between urban and rural areas, and accelerated the concentration of population to cities. The development of the electrical industry made large-scale centralized living the most efficient and comfortable lifestyle for the majority of workers. Large-scale urbanization and urban agglomeration are products and characteristics of the third industrial revolution. The electric lamp was invented in the United States in 1879, the first thermal power plant was built in New York in 1882, the T-car was launched by Ford in 1908, and the airplane was invented by Wright in 1903. During the third industrial revolution, which was approximately from 1870 to 1940, the number of cities in the United States increased from 663 to 3,464, the urban population increased from 9.9 million to 74 million, and the proportion of urban population increased from 25.7% to 56.5%. In Germany, another pioneer in the third industrial revolution, the urbanization rate increased from 20% to 80% from the early 19th century to the end of the 19th century, and Berlin changed from a town with less than 200,000 residents to a metropolis with 3 million residents.
The fourth and fifth industrial revolutions brought about a wave of reverse-urbanization. On one hand, the excessive urbanization arising from industrialization has led to “big city problems” such as rising land prices, housing shortages, traffic jam, and serious pollution; on the other hand, convenient transport conditions, especially the deep development of information technology, have redefined “spatial distance”, and on average people pursue more comfortable and dignified life, so some industries and population gradually move to the periphery of cities, showing “reverse-urbanization”. Many countries such as the United States and Japan have experienced this process.
In Japan, the Tokyo Bay urban agglomeration formed during the third industrial revolution, and it was claimed that there was no un-remediated (un-cemented) river in Japan. After maturity of the third industrial revolution was reached, there was a trend of “counter-urbanization” characterized by, among other things, the recovery of natural soil watercourse. “environmental protection”, “green”, “energy saving” and “natural” have become a worldwide trend. The fundamental reason behind this phenomenon is that the third industrial revolution that gave birth to “urbanization” had come to an end, and the world had entered the period of the fourth industrial revolution since the 1970s. China has a very special situation in “environmental protection”. In China, the 30 years after the start of the reform and opening-up is actually a large-scale remediation cycle for the second and third industrial revolutions, and in the period of the information industry revolution “urbanization” and “environmental protection” are two dialectic subjects for China.
(VI) From the perspective of the industrial revolution, “corner overtaking” is a false proposition
In the history of mankind, industrial upgrading and rise of powerful countries strictly conforms to the logic and sequence of agriculture - textile industry - electrical industry - information industry, and the previous industrial upgrading is the necessary basic condition for the subsequent industrial upgrading. The countries failing to complete subsequent upgrading after a previous upgrading have naturally declined or relatively declined, such as the Shang Dynasty in ancient China, modern China, the UK after World War I, France and Japan after World War II, and Russia after the Cold War.
Therefore, it is almost certain that the so-called corner overtaking in the form of “Great Leap Forward” will definitely fail. For example, the Soviet Union as well as China after the Great Leap Forward failed. Similarly, many third world countries that marched to the third industrial revolution directly from the period of farming and stockbreeding, such as Argentina, Iran, Indonesia, Libya, Venezuela, and Mexico, were frustrated and suffered financial crises or loss in the process of industrialization, regardless of their natural endowments and oil wealth. In a strict sense, among the third world countries only China realized industrialization smoothly after World War II.
1. Similarities and differences between China and the Soviet Union
① In terms of capital accumulation, both countries conducted violent revolutions to deprive landlords, nobles and the bourgeoisie of their properties, take away agricultural accumulation by means of the people’s communes and collective agriculture. They gathered the accumulations of the petty bourgeoisie and intellectual stratum through anti- petty bourgeoisie and anti-rightist campaigns, and completed their five-year plans with the planned economy under the people’s dictatorship.
② In terms of technology introduction, the Soviet Union benefited from the “purposive” output of Germany and the United States in the context of a special world geopolitical pattern, and China also benefited from the necessary “arming” of China by the Soviet Union under the background of the Cold War after the Korean War, including output of “156” complete technologies.
③ China’s “Great Leap Forward” campaign initiated to catch up with the UK and the United States by steel smelting is a typical failure of forcible “corner overtaking”.
④ The divergence between the paths of China and the Soviet Union is still insufficient capital accumulation.
After the failure of the “Great Leap Forward” campaign, the result of the struggle between the two paths was that China launched the Cultural Revolution and snatched capital accumulation from the bureaucratic class, while the Soviet Union preserved the bureaucratic privilege. Hitler, who built many expressways and automobile factories (Volkswagen, Porsche, etc.), also used violence to snatch accumulated wealth from European Jews after Keynesian economic policies were exhausted and took the “corner overtaking” to heavy industry by force. These tragic political tragedies in history were caused by the wrong policy of forcible “corner overtaking” with insufficient capital accumulation.
⑤ The reform and opening-up initiated by Deng Xiaoping
At the same time, by virtue of favorable political systems (such as the “no argumentation” principle) and fiscal systems (such as the tax division system), large-scale projects implemented by the central government such as infrastructure projects, power generation projects, highway projects, railway projects, port projects and airport projects, large-scale demolition and reconstruction and wide urbanization progressed. China quickly completed “the second and the third” two industrial revolutions. In the late period of the Soviet Union, the leaders also realized the insufficient foundation of light industries and the economic imbalance, and expected a “reform and opening-up”. However, due to the geopolitical pattern, the western world led by the United States did not accept its opening-up and integration. Also due to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country lost the support of centralized power and failed to make up for the “missed lessons”, and thus declined.
2. All the third world countries expecting prosperity from a “corner overtaking” failed, and there were few successful cases. Taking Argentina for example, from the end of the 18th century to the beginning of the 19th century, Argentina had developed stockbreeding and planting industry by virtue of a superior natural environment. In the economic crisis of the 1930s, Argentina tried getting out of the difficulties by developing industry, and vigorously fostered state-owned enterprises to develop heavy industries such as cement, electricity, and metallurgy. However, this did not help Argentina get rid of the economic crisis, but led to the proliferation of populism and eventually contributed to a military coup, indicating the failure of the corner overtaking. Other third world countries also had similar experience. Almost all corner overtaking in the form of a “Great Leap Forward” end in failure. Even in the relatively developed South Korea, the direct overtaking from the first industrial revolution to the third and fourth industrial revolutions seemed successful, but such a top-heavy economy cannot withstand any unexpected crises. In 1997, South Korea was almost bankrupted in the Asian financial crisis. 16 of the 30 magnate enterprises quitted the market in failure, and 16 of the 25 large-scale banks disappeared. The unemployment rate became extremely high, the middle class declined, and the national economy of Korea suffered the most severe strike in history. The adverse impact of that crisis can still be seen today.
3. Case of small country with relatively high possibility of success: the Vietnamese mode
Vietnam is exactly replicating the path of China in reform and opening-up, with a relatively high possibility of success. Since the reform in the economic system, Vietnam has started from a labor-intensive textile industry, and has made considerable progress and development in its economy. In 2017, its total GDP reached USD 227.6 billion, and the economic aggregate had been similar to that of Portugal; textiles and clothing, footwear, and consumer electronics products accounted for more than 60% of the total export volume of the country. Along with the increasing labor cost in China, Vietnam is likely to become a new small world factory by virtue of its cheaper labor force.
(VII) Analysis on GDP distortion and importance of R&D economy from the perspective of industrial revolution
A trend in the analysis of macroeconomic law studies is that GDP and GNP are statistics only and have become more and more distorted in recent years. For example, Russia’s GDP is not as high as that of Guangdong Province; output values of steel & iron, cement, high-speed railway, electricity and fertilizer industries of China account for more than a half of the corresponding values of the whole world, and China has hundreds of “No. 1” in these industries, but China is not No. 1 in GDP still. This indicates that there is a distortion of GDP, which is caused by exchange rates, statistical distortion, and deeper industrial and technological reasons.
1. The classification criteria for primary, secondary and tertiary industries is outdated.
① Proportions of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in GDP mainly reflect the view of macro-economy in the period of industrial revolution. After several rounds of industrialization, agriculture contains many factory-based and stream line type farming and stockbreeding components, and also includes many elements of sightseeing agriculture and emerging rural complex. Which industry do these contents belong to? The cost of mutton in Inner Mongolia is higher than the cost of mutton imported from Germany, because Inner Mongolia has traditional stockbreeding while Germany has modern (or science and technology based) stockbreeding.
② The statistics of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries cannot show the advancement of technology and industry. Although Russia’s GDP is low, it is still a country that can launch spacecraft and manufacture various airplanes. GDP numbers coming from spacecraft industry are at a different level compared with the numbers coming from shoes and clothes making.
2. Investment + consumption + import & export cannot reflect industrial quality factors and economic efficiency, either. In a joke, digging a pit and then filling it creates GDP twice. Similarly, Keynesianism was particularly popular around World War II. Under the influence of scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading, low-end investment and low-end exports have lower and lower economic value.
3. The modern economy should be divided into three categories: R&D economy, real economy, and service economy. Among them, since the third industrial revolution, the R&D economy represented by Edison Lab, Bell Labs, Google Alpha Institute, and Fraunhofer, Germany is becoming more and more important, and has become the core and engine of industrial upgrading on the global stage. In the real economy, industries can be classified based on the dominant industries arising from the first, second, third, fourth and fifth industrial revolutions so as to observe and compare the industries more effectively and to guide the development of high-end industries and making of relevant policies.
Only with a new GDP correction and industrial classification correction will effective guidance for and cultivation of scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading be realized, and the proportion of R&D economy be significantly increased.
II. Who will be the final winner? The true historical rule of the rise of great powers?
(I) The first industrial revolution and the rise of China’s Zhou and Qin Dynasties
During the agricultural revolution, agriculture was an emerging industry of great strategic importance and vital to national prosperity. Many important factors contribute to the rise of an agricultural nation, including agriculture-friendly natural conditions, technologies, infrastructures and the design of a system suitable for agricultural progress.
Firstly, China’s Zhou Dynasty was successful in replacing the Shang Dynasty in large part because of the Zhou Dynasty’s focus on the development of agriculture, a strategic emerging industry at that time. The whole Book of Changes is about the interpretation of agriculture by the descendants of Ji, the Minister of agriculture in the Xia Dynasty. The strategy of "Small Country Zhou" to defeat the "big country Shang" is all about the system design of governing the whole country’s agricultural resources by means of the “Nine Squares System” and the system of enfeoffment. If seen from the perspective of Book of History and Book of Songs, Book of Changes is an epic narrative of the agricultural revolution and the rise of the Zhou Dynasty as a substitute for the Shang Dynasty written by King Wen and Zhou Gong of the Zhou Dynasty. The description of the deer, the pig, such natural elements as crops, wind, thunder, rain, water, moist, earth and fire as well as favorable geographic position can be seen everywhere in Book of Changes, which is a set of historical records and textbooks for training teams internally and guiding strategies externally. After the Zhou Dynasty, the country was called “Sheji”.
Secondly, Qin's growing strength was also based on agriculture.
Thirdly, from the rise and fall of the four ancient civilizations, it is also possible to find the importance of agricultural scale. For the four ancient civilizations flourishing at the same time, why only Chinese civilization lasted more than 5,000 years? Why was China the only one to be "unified"? There is only one answer: large-scale agricultural infrastructure.
2. The foundation of unification: The complete agricultural infrastructure laid the foundation for the development of agriculture, and agriculture was the decisive factor for the development of the dynasty. The foundation for the unification of the dynasty was the unification of agricultural areas. Non-agricultural areas such as the northeast, northwest, Hexi Corridor, southwest and coastal areas of the East China Sea were always lost and gained by various powers. The Emperor of the Qin Dynasty Ying Zheng built the Great Wall, Lingqu canal and connected Qinhuai. The opening of the Grand Canal by Emperor Yang Guang of the Sui Dynasty is the foundation of the continuation and unification of China's agricultural civilization. The true "unification" is always within the Great Wall, and within the flow of the Yangtze River, Yellow River and the Grand Canal.
3. Ancient wars: Nomads have never defeated the civilization of the Central Plains, including militarily.
Agricultural civilisation is more advanced than nomadic culture, which can provide a more stable and abundant source of food for life, and make more handmade products on a large scale, including weapons such as arrows in Qin Dynasty, swords in Tang Dynasty and artillery in Ming Dynasty. There were many conflicts and wars between nomadic and farming peoples in Chinese history, despite Xirong in Zhou Dynasty, Hun and Sienpi in Qin and Han Dynasties, Rouran in Northern Wei Dynasty, Turk and Huihe in Sui and Tang Dynasties, Khitan and Nvzhen in Song Dynasties, Mongolia and Nvzhen in Ming Dynasty, or Kalka and Dzungaria in Qing Dynasty, but nomadic culture failed to overcome farming culture and was even eventually assimilated by the latter. The so-called "grassland empire" and "nomadic khan" are false propositions relative to the large-scale advanced agricultural civilization.
Since the first emperor of the Qin Dynasty built the Great Wall, especially when the Grand Canal was built, the Chinese civilization had remained superior to the nomadic civilization except during the rule of the Yuan Dynasty. Scholars studying on the history of the Mongolian army generally pay too much attention to horseback shooting, ignoring the fact that the formation of the invincible Mongolian Legion was the result of the combination of the Mongolian army and the Central Plains industry. It was the unwise strategy of uniting Mongolia to destroy the Jin Dynasty that gave up the Central Plains to Mongolia. The Mongols merged the manpower, financial resources, force and instruments of the Central Plains to make them invincible. Kublai Khan, who founded the Yuan Dynasty, relied on the Central Plains Han Army as the main force in the battle of internal fight for Khan. It was the Central Plains Han Army that defeated the pure Mongolian armies of other great Khans such as Ali Bukor and pushed Kublai to the throne of Khan. The main force of the Yuan army who went down south to destroy Song Dynasty was still the Central Plains Han Army and the Central Plains Han fleet. It can be said that the Yuan Dynasty’s destroy of the Southern Song Dynasty is simply the unification of the separatist regime south of Yangtze River by the Central Plains governed by Kublai, simply duplicating Jin destroying Wu, Sui destroying Chen and Song destroying Tang. After the implementation of the "Eight Banners Military System", "Niulu System" and "Manchu-Han Divided Governance", Nurhachi of Houjin established an agricultural foundation to merge Manchu and Han people and seized the rule easily taking advantage of prevailing chaos. The so-called entry of the Qing Dynasty into the Shanhaiguan Pass is also a unification war of the agricultural region, with 800,000 northern Han troops as the main force. After occupying the agricultural area, the Qing Dynasty gradually abandoned Tungusic origin and then quit Manchuria's old land when facing Russia's eastward march. It is the same Central Plains logic with the Zhou Dynasty to develop the Central Plains and move capital to Luoyang after it destroyed the Shang Dynasty.
(II) The second industrial revolution and the rise of Britain
On the one hand, the Netherlands did not use its surplus capital for the textile industry after the completion of its overseas expansion and initial accumulation. Instead, it was invested in land reclamation and fisheries. After all, the Netherlands had only 1.5 million people; on the other hand, Britain had all the conditions for large-scale production of the cotton textile industry at that time. The first condition was the production technology for industrial revolution. Britain was the first to invent the “Spinning Jenny” spinning machine, which greatly improved the efficiency of the cotton spinning industry. The second condition was the market size and population. At that time, the population of Britain and the world had reached 10 million and 1 billion, respectively. Only the cotton cloth manufactured by large-scale machines could meet the clothing needs of mankind; the silk and linen cloth manufactured by hand could not. The third factor was the basic conditions for industrial revolution to happen. Ruler of Holland and King of England: The "Glorious Revolution" in 1688 was the turning point of the British industrial revolution, of the British and Dutch national fates, and of deciding that the country to complete the industrial revolution would be England or Holland. William III was a Dutch patriot who seized the throne by force, emigrated a number of people from the Netherlands to Britain (equivalent to colonization), introduced large amounts of capital (also called exploitation) from the Netherlands to Britain, brought military instructors from the Netherlands, and even imperial guards. The English called him "Conqueror", “the king of the Dutchmen and the ruler of the Englishmen”.
In 1566, ahead of 1688, the Dutch Army took the lead in completing the first bourgeois revolution in history, the "Nederland Revolution", and established the bourgeois republic. William III's grandfather became the father of the Holland (supreme consul). The Republic of Holland defeated Spain. In East India and North and South America, the company + route + trade + colony mode was established. It was the first country to fully develop the colonial system. It controlled 70% of trade (twice as much as Britain), monopolized the financial industry, and, until the eighteenth century, it was still a British creditor.
Cromwell launched three Anglo-Dutch wars for the sake of trade and wealth. The last time, led by the famous general Michiel Adriaenszoon de Ruyter, the Dutch fleet not only defeated the Anglo-French fleet, but also founded the Marine Corps and landed in London. It was the religious civil strife in Britain after Charles II that gave the Dutch ruler William III (then Prince of Orange and the Dutch ruler) the opportunity to enable him to take the British throne with the Marines. It was he who introduced the achievements of the Dutch bourgeois revolution in 1566, including the shipbuilding, fleet, the army system, the capital and financial system, the trade routes and the colonial model, into Britain. Combined with a larger population and territory, these factors gave birth to the British industrial revolution (the second industrial revolution). His historical role is very similar to that of Zhou Gong when Zhou and Shang were merged.
Militarily, William III set the percentage of British fleet in the Anglo-Dutch fleet as 60% through an Anglo-Dutch agreement and provided Dutch capital loans to Britain to build ships, making the British Navy, which was originally weaker than its Dutch counterpart, the best in the world within a few years. At the same time, he introduced the Dutch officer group, completely transformed the original, insignificant British Army, and established a new 70,000-soldier army. He initiated and won the Spanish Empire War (1702-1713), the Second Anglo-French Centennial War (1689-1815), and defeated Spain and France. Before his death, he destroyed Spanish and French main forces in the Battle of Vigo Bay in October 1702, after which Britain took control of the Triangle and East India routes, and controlled the trade from the hand of the Netherlands. Similarly, William III himself divided the trade areas of the Anglo-Dutch East India Company: Britain developed cotton spinning in India, while the Netherlands developed spices in Southeast Asia. Twenty years later, the profit from cotton spinning of the British East India Company exceeded that from the spices of the Dutch company. He even arranged a large amount of capital stock to be transferred from Holland to the British East India Company. It was also William who in 1694 used the Dutch model and capital to reform the British fiscal and financial system, including the issuance of bonds, the establishment of the Bank of England, the establishment of the Royal Mint, and the establishment of the London Stock Exchange. There would have been no second industrial revolution in Britain without William III's military strategy and the introduction of technology, capital and financial systems from the Netherlands. As Churchill said, "no one can surpass him in his skills, ability and statecraft."
(III) The third industrial revolution and the rise of Germany, USA and Soviet Union
The reason why Germany, USA and the Soviet Union were able to rise strongly was that they had the necessary conditions for the industrial revolution. Firstly, Germany and the United States had the industrial infrastructure for the electrical revolution: (1) Electrical technology was used in production extensively. The essence of the third industrial revolution was the electrical revolution. The most notable manifestation was electrical application. Although Faraday, a British scientist, first discovered electromagnetic induction, it was the German inventor Siemens and the American inventor Edison who first applied this technology to production. It was the generators and transmission equipment invented by a group of scientists represented by them that led Germany and the United States into the era of electrification.
(2) They vigorously relied on and developed resources of coal, iron and steel, highways and railways and transportation infrastructure. Taking Germany as an example, under the guidance of the Bismarck policy, the construction of railways across the country created tremendous demand for coal, rail, locomotives, and carriages, which effectively promoted the expansion of a series of heavy industry sectors, such as coal mining, metallurgy and machinery manufacturing. Among them, the Ruhr region of Germany vigorously developed its economy based on coal and steel, and became the most important industrial base in Europe in a short period of time. In the westward movement, the United States vigorously strengthened investment in public infrastructure such as railways, highways and power stations, of which the development of railways was the most prominent. The investment and construction of railways not only provided a broad market for the development of American industry, but also promoted development of the steel, machinery and coal industries. At the same time, the U.S. government authorized the construction of railways through the California Act of 1861 and the Pacific Railway Act of 1862 and granted land for laying rails, which accelerated the expansion of railways. Investment in infrastructure such as railways, highways and power plants not only provided a broad market for Germany and the United States, but also stimulated the development of industries such as steel and automobile manufacturing, laying a solid foundation for the subsequent economic development of the two countries.
(3) They had unified markets, industrial population size and industrial capital. Through the Franco-Prussian War, national unification was achieved in Germany and promoted the formation of a unified German market. At the same time, most of the countries headed by Prussia gradually implemented the serf system reform, through which the German feudal peasants were gradually transformed into a free labor force, and a large number of industrial populations needed by the industrial revolution were gained. Meanwhile, the German aristocracy gradually invested their money in industrial production and converted it into industrial capital. Finally, Bismarck Germany was the first country in the world to implement a social security system. To a certain extent, it improved the living conditions of industrial workers, prolonged their working life, and met the growing demand of the German industrial revolution for labor. Similarly, the United States, on the one hand, seized Native American space by developing westward; on the other hand, the feudal manor economy of the South was destroyed through the Civil War and slavery was abolished, which provided a large industrial population and significant capital for the development of the American industrial revolution, opened the domestic market for industrial products, and promoted formation of a unified market. By 1913, before the outbreak of World War I, the population of the United States, Germany, the Soviet Union and Japan were 97 million, 87 million, 175 million and 82 million respectively, far exceeding the 46 million and 40 million in Britain and France. This fully demonstrates that Britain and France, with a population of more than 40 million, lagged behind Germany, the United States, the Soviet Union and Japan with 80-100 million population in the new round of industrial revolution competition especially during the development of democracy.
Table 4 Comparison of population, political system and government role in industrialization between USA, Germany, Soviet Union, Japan, UK and France before World War I (1913)
(4) The government invested heavily in the development of education and science, which greatly promoted the progress of electrical revolution. Take the United States as an example; the USA itself does not have the long scientific traditions of Britain, Germany and other countries, and almost starts from scratch. In 1850, free elementary and secondary education was implemented in the northern and western states. In the late nineteenth century, the United States began to establish a universal free education system that was unique in the world. In the half century after 1860, the number of students in primary and secondary schools in the United States increased from 5.7 million to 18 million. From 1870 to 1916, the number of Americans with bachelor"s and higher degrees increased from 9,300 to 49,800, and the funding for education increased from 60 million to 600 million dollars. The 1862 Morrill Land-Grant Act allowed Polytechnic and agricultural colleges to be established on state-owned land in various states, and many industrial technology schools and Polytechnic schools were established during the electrical revolution. These measures provided a large number of industrial technology and professional engineering personnel for the electrical industrial revolution in the United States. The United States promoted scientific and technological innovation, attached importance to scientific research transformation, including applied and experimental technology in science and engineering; it established a large number of industrial research institutes, and allocated funds to establish applied technology research centers in state universities. The model of science and engineering colleges in the industrialization stage of China originated from United States rather than from the Soviet Union.
Compared with Germany and the United States, the rapid rise of the Soviet Union mainly stemmed from two aspects:
Firstly, it obtained large-scale technology transfer from Germany and USA. In order to break through the restrictions of the Versailles Treaty, Germany moved a lot of military industries and weapons research and development experiments to the Soviet Union, which made the heavy industry and military technology of the Soviet Union develop by leaps. After World War I, Soviet Russia was blocked by the West, and Germany was restricted by Anglo-French arms, so Lenin and Stalin quickly allied with Germany to find a point of cooperation. Germany moved defense industrial projects to the Soviet Union, and the two sides cooperated on artillery, tanks, ships, aircraft and so on. Germany helped Soviet Russia to establish a national defense industry through "technology transfer + instructor + loan". From 1930 to 1933 alone, the Soviet Union imported 2.3 billion marks’ worth of equipment from Germany. For example, Germany sent a complete set of drawings of E-I submarines to Soviet Russia for creating a submarine force. Marshal Green, the World War II culprit, was also a faculty member at the Soviet Russian Aeronautical School. The main Soviet Russian artillery factories were built with the help of Krupp, Germany.
In addition, American capitalists made large scale technology transfer, loans and investments to the Soviet Union in order to gain profits. America's assistance to Soviet Union included capital and equipment as well as advanced industrial design. Albert Kahn, a famous German-American, was a pioneer of industrial architecture and planning in the United States. He was both the "father of modern American factories" and the "father of modern Russian factories". It was he who designed the Ford automobile factory. He also designed 521 factories for Soviet Russia and trained thousands of engineers. Without Albert Kahn, there would be no Soviet Union's "first 5-year plan" or "second 5-year plan". The factory designed by Kahn and the equipment supplied by American manufacturers covered almost all heavy industries such as warships, tanks, tractors, steel, oil refining, radio, bearings, automobiles and gunpowder. General Electric, Radio Corporation America, General Motors, Ford Motor, DuPont, and others were all actively involved and making a lot of money.
Secondly, it had rapid capital accumulation by exploiting peasants' wealth in large quantities, realizing transfer from an agricultural country to an industrial one, and established the third industrial revolutionary base directly to develop the heavy industry. For example, the Soviet Union exploited peasants' interests wantonly and acquired raw resources to develop heavy industry by means of deprivation during the Soviet revolution, with the establishment of agricultural cooperatives. It took only 30 years to complete the industrialization that had taken the West hundreds of years. The course of development before China's reform and opening-up was very similar to that of the Soviet Union. Through mass movements such as the agrarian revolution, the establishment of mass communes and the Anti-Rightist movement, China accumulated a large amount of primitive capital necessary for the development of heavy industry. In short, China replicated the Soviet Union model, and Mao Zedong and Stalin did almost the same thing in history. But there were two differences: one being that Mao Zedong asked for capital from the bureaucrats to develop the national defense technology industry such as "two bombs and one satellite" through the Cultural Revolution, while the Soviet Union maintained the privileged bureaucrats. Another is that under Deng Xiaoping's reform and opening up policy, the foundation of the second industrial revolution was complemented from the light industry represented by the textile industry through large-scale introduction of advanced technology from the United States, Japan and other countries. The Soviet Union did not learn the lesson until its fall. This is the beginning of the national policy of dividing the national destiny.
(IV) The fourth industrial revolution and the rise of USA and China
The United States has only more than 200 years of history since its independence, but it has achieved an unshakable position in the economic, military, scientific and technological fields, and has become the only superpower in the world today. Especially since the fourth industrial revolution, the United States has led the transformation of the information industry and great enterprises represented by IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, Apple, Google and Facebook have risen one after another. China, on the other hand, relying on reform and opening up and its huge market size, has introduced a large number of advanced technologies from the United States, and has achieved a leap-forward development in the field of information and communications. A number of world-class Internet and information technology enterprises, such as Alibaba, Tencent, Lenovo and Huawei, have emerged. The deep-seated reasons for the rise of China and the United States in the fourth industrial revolution include: firstly, both countries have complete infrastructure elements for the development of the information industry (Internet, optical fiber, mobile phones, satellites). China, for example, currently accounts for more than 80 percent of the world's optical broadband, the highest in the world. 4G penetration rate is more than double the global average. By the end of 2017, China had 34.06 million kilometers of optical cable lines, 600 million optical fiber ports and 260 million optical fiber subscribers, making it the country with the largest number of optical fiber broadband subscribers in the world. China's mobile phone users reach 760 million, ranking first in the world. At the same time, China has replaced the United States as the country with the largest number of supercomputers in the world. China currently has 202 of the highest performance computers in the world. In contrast, the United States has only 143, ranking second, Japan has 35, ranking third, and Germany has 20, ranking fourth. In addition, currently the only countries with global communication and navigation networks in the world are China, USA and Russia.
Secondly, China and the United States have the prerequisite for the outbreak of the information industry revolution: a considerable number of urbanized people and a considerable size of the secondary and tertiary industries. By the end of 2017, China, the United States and India had a population of 1.38 billion, 330 million and 1.33 billion respectively, far exceeding other potential competitors. In 2017, the urban populations of China and the United States were 780 million and 280 million respectively, ranking first in the world, which laid the population foundation for the arrival of information industry. At the same time, the scale and volume of the secondary and tertiary industries in China and the United States are extremely huge. The scale of China's manufacturing industry has ranked first in the world, and the scale of service industry has also been rising. In 2017, the total volume of service trade reached 657.5 billion US dollars, ranking second in the world, after the United States. At the same time, China and the United States are the only countries in the world that have completed the first, second, third and fourth industrial revolution.
Thirdly, the US government first promoted the construction of information infrastructure and led the transformation of the industry. From the 1980s to the early 1990s, under the vigorous advocacy of the US military, the Clinton administration actively promoted the technical progress of the computer and the Internet, and the construction of national information infrastructure, namely, the implementation of the National Strategic Plans such as the "Information Superhighway" strategy, the "Internet-II" and the "Next Generation Internet" plans. This has brought enormous social and economic benefits to the United States, helping it take the lead in the fourth industrial revolution, which combines computers with communications on the basis of electronic computing. At the same time, the United States has a large number of scientists, engineers and other R&D personnel in IT and biomedicine fields, which also provides a guarantee for the rapid rise of the United States.
Fourthly, under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, China has seized 40 years of a precious strategic development period. During this period, China took advantage of the honeymoon period with the United States under the background of blockade of Russia and the war on terror to introduce (almost duplicate) the latest technology and achievements of the information industry revolution from the United States, and the advanced technology of the third industrial revolution (electrical manufacturing, heavy chemical industry, etc.) from Germany and Japan, realizing the miracle of economic take-off. Based on the above four factors, China and the United States are the only countries that are qualified for the rise in the information revolution era.
Figure. Comparison of national information infrastructure of major countries in the world
(Ⅴ) Institutional force of a country and rise of powerful countries
During industrial transformation, whether a country has the vigorous “institutional aggregation” is the necessary condition whether the industrial revolution can be promoted smoothly and it is also the important condition whether the industrial revolution can promote the rise of the great nations.
1. Institutional aggregation of “Kingly way of Zhou Dynasty and Britain”
Chinese Zhou Dynasty and Britain of colonial expansion showed stronger institutional aggregation: internal “Centralism” and external “Feudalism”. And within the scope of colonial domination, the Napoleonic Code type “Change existing habits and customs” was not adopted but “Do in Rome as Rome does”. Internally, the aristocracy hierarchical system of centralization was established in accordance with the patriarchal system in Zhou Dynasty; externally, Zhou Emperor appointed the members of the aristocracy as vassals, who mastered the advanced production technology and knowledge of agriculture, respecting the local customs and traditions in every vassal state during the implementation of Rites of Zhou. Likewise, Britain in colonial expansion also adopted the constitutional monarchy system internally with the governance of aristocracy. The colonies were managed with “Enfeoffment” for every colony establishing the laws and trade system which are similar to motherland and large-scale production and market demand system which promote the industrialization.
2. Institutional aggregation of Qin and Han, Germany, Japan, Russia and the United States
Taking a wide view of word history, there is almost no free market economic system in the period of technological revolution and industrial transformation. Except for the federalism of the United States, 100% representative countries in previous industrial revolution were the rule of centralization, anti-democratic and even autocracy. During the First Technology Revolution, Qin and Han Dynasties in China's early feudal monarchy implemented centralization internally and allocated the nationwide materials and human resources for ensuring the implementation of large water projects and defence engineering. The Second Technology Revolution took place in Britain which was a country under the constitutional monarchy system with aristocratic tyranny and women debarred from voting, not in Netherlands with more powerful capital strength which initiatively established the democratic republicanism and selected the prime minister. It was precisely because the Prince of Orange, who was not restored as the King of Netherlands, took the opportunity of the Glorious Revolution in 1688 to lead the Marine Corps arrived at London that he became the King of Britain, William III. And he beat the Spain and France by convening the British Dutch fleet coincidentally, with the control of the “Triangular routes” and directions for sailing to the East India and the introduction of the Dutch capital and talented person system, forcing the Industrial Revolution. During the Third Industrial Revolution, the Bismarck, prime minister of Deutsches Reich, established the social security system matching the industrial model of electrical heavy chemical industry with autocracy under the support of absolute monarchy Deutscher Kaiser, which “decidedly” and rapidly converted the achievements of the third industrial revolution into industry and national power. The saying of Deutscher Kaiser, Willem II, was “My will is the supreme law”. However, the Bismarck opposed to establish the Cabinet and the person in charge in each department (Secretary of State) was appointed by him. The Soviet Union also fully developed the heavy industries of power, steel, chemical industry and war industry under the centralization rule of Stalin, which realized the industrial transformation. During the Fourth Technology Revolution, the United States realized a series of breakthroughs of moon landing with military-industrial complex technologies and industrial advantages, which gave birth to a host of new modern technology industries, computer, satellite network and Internet were the products transformed from military to civilian by the entire country’s efforts.
3. “Democratic” rule of human.
The “universal value” of democracy, freedom and philanthropism are always regarded as the most sensible morphology of human political system in western countries. But, it can be found from studying history that in the critical period of industrial transformation after the technological revolution, centralization and “anti-democratic” are tend to be the mainstream; however, the real “democratic” institution generally exists in the long-term steady state of the interval of technological revolution. The countries of the pastoral society, hunting society and small trade country such as in ancient times of China and western ancient Greek city-states, adopted the democratic republic system characterized by elections. As the records of the Book of Rites, “when implement the ultimate the whole world as one community. The person with good and honest virtue and talent is selected to serve everyone and everyone values honesty and harmony”, which is talking about the original democracy and Crown Abdication selected by the tribes before the Great Yu. The original election system was recorded in the Dalisa by Mongolian race, which was a horde. Of course, the city-states in Greece (its scale is similar to one town of China) can convene a limited number of all the men to hold a meeting with democratic decision-making. Even through the nurture of feudal autocracy for thousands of years, the ethnic Chinese farmer has established Asia’s first democratic presidential republic “Lan Fang Republic” in Borneo (Kalimantan) in 1777, which elected 12 presidents in total (it was destroyed by Netherlands later). The democratic foundation of “Lan Fang Republic” was island trade. As the agricultural country lasting for the longest time after the first agricultural revolution, China was established from Zhou and became centralized and even tyranny from Qin and Han. The era that the most “democratic” middle-class intellectuals enjoyed the most liberal political right was Song Dynasty, which was in the agriculture stabilization period. In Ming Dynasty, the dictatorship was strengthened, the “Cabinet System” was expanded and the “Virtual King” Wanli didn’t go to court for 30 years. During the Second Technology Revolution, Britain, which is a constitutional monarchy country with stronger institutional aggregation and France, under the feudal autocratic monarchy, rapidly completed the industrial transformation after the technological revolution. However, during the Third Technology Revolution, Germany, Japan and the United States with stronger institutional aggregation seized the opportunity that the “Democratic” Britain and the France after the Great Revolution were leaved behind. In the history of France, the proudest period exactly was the overlapping period of the emperor centralized of Napoleon and the Second Technical Revolution. After Napoleon, France has always been a Second-tier power in the west. China has completed the over 200-year process of industrialization of capitalist countries within 30 years of the Reform and Opening-up, which depended on the effective incentive mechanism and social management system. The industrialization hasn’t been realized in Latin America which has more “Democratic and liberal” and “Superior” political and financial institutions, and Africa which has more substantial resources. It is mainly due to the lack of institutional aggregation. During the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the “lost 30 years” of Japan was the 30 years in which the prime minister was constantly replaced under the forced democracy.
4. Dawn of “Universal value”. The Fifth Technology Revolution with the life technology and artificial intelligence as the representative may bring about the real “freedom, democracy and philanthropism” for humankind. Big Data and artificial intelligence technology is likely to solve the information symmetry problem which puzzled human society for thousands of years: the decentralized financial system is possible because of blockchain technology; the rapid development of life science and technology is helping people get rid of the disease and death; the intelligent manufacturing which combines the deep learning ability of artificial intelligence and mechanical strength is hopeful to utterly destroy the exploit, oppression and slavery in human society, developing a real “liberal, democratic and philanthropic” society for humankind.
(Ⅵ) Industrial revolution, geopolitical situation and rise of powerful countries
Although industry revolution is the dominant factor of powerful nation, geopolitical situation and the clash of civilizations also have the effect on the rise and decline of nations and the national destiny. Throughout the history of the world, the continental countries are located at the place which are easy to be attacked and have the geographical disadvantages comparing to the relative periphery countries (island countries), so the rise of a power nation is difficult. At all times and in all countries, three typical countries, which rose in new industry initiatively to be the powerful nation and then failed in the conquest, respectively are Wei Dynasty in Warring States Period, Germany in World War I and the Soviet Union in Cold War. They all failed because of their disadvantageous geopolitical situation.
The superior geographical pattern provided favorable conditions for Qin Dynasty to unify six countries in the Warring State Period. In early Warring State Period, Wei Dynasty was benefit from “the thought of development of agricultural production” and “unification of soldiers and farmers” in Li Kui Reform. Thus Wei Dynasty became the first rise and the first powerful country in the Warring State Period. But Wei Dynasty was located at the place which was easy to be attacked and was difficult to develop. Finally, Wei Dynasty changed from flourish to decadence. Then Qin Dynasty became the head of seven warring states through Shang Yang’s Reform. Chu Dynasty also achieved rapid economic growth through Wu Qi Reform. In order to hold back the development of Qin Dynasty, six countries in Guanzhong at the head of Chu Dynasty jointly started six wars to resist Qin Dynasty. Since they didn’t stand firm, under the counterattack of diplomacy of allying strong power of Qin Dynasty, the wars all ended in failure. Nowadays, seeing “the rise of Qin Dynasty”, the superior geographical advantage was one of favorable conditions for its victory in the game of seven warring states, besides two fertile agricultural areas of Guanzhong and Bashu (Two ancient cities in Sichuan) and strong economic strength. Besides, Qin Dynasty was located at the place of four fortresses which can be defensive and offensive. The weak nomads in the west laid the stability of west. In the east, three countries of Zhao Dynasty, Han Dynasty, and Wei Dynasty didn’t agree with each other. Finally, contending for the domination of the country were Qin Dynasty and Chu Dynasty, which located at the edge and finished the unification of soldiers and farmers reform.
The geographical environment and geographical strategic error were the important reasons for the failure of Germany in World War I. The third industrial revolution made Germany become the world’s second largest industrial power at the early 20th century. Its comprehensive national strength was far better than neighboring countries like Britain, France and Russia. But both in the “World War I” and the “World War II”, Germany ended with failure, which related to geographical environment. On the one hand, Germany was located in the central Europe and was checked and balanced by other European countries in the east, west and south. It was easy to be attacked jointly by neighboring countries and the geographical environment was at a disadvantage. On the other hand, from the geographical strategy, during World War I, Germany chose to ally with Austria-Hungary which was also located in the inland of central Europe, and it was encircled with east-west strategy by two peripheral countries of Britain and France and land country of Russian, and then the United States with strong sea power participated in. Germany eventually ended with failure. During World War I, Germany fought on east and west fronts depending on the national strength of industrial upgrading. In the east front, it defeated Russian and funded and triggered Soviet revolution. In the west front, it fought for Anglo-French Allied Force and almost defeated. The transition variable which fails on the verge of success was that 1.5 million armies of island state of the United States entered the war to save the French army in 1918. And US navy entered the war to save Britain. The United States entering the war was not an accident but a necessity. Submarine attack and telegram defected Mexican were just excuses. In so-called neutral period of the United States, it provided a total loan of four billion dollars to Britain and France respectively. (Through World War I, the United States went from a debtor of six billion to a creditor of 10 billion.). The credit had bound the interests and it must save Britain and France.
The geographical pattern had domestic trouble and foreign invasion, which is also the reason of dissolution of the Soviet Union. After the “October Revolution”, the Soviet Union became the leading power in Europe. After “World War II”, the Soviet Union became the only superpower to rival the United States in the world. But from 1970s, Soviet Union went to decline rapidly and collapsed in 1991. There were two reasons. First, interior cooperation, Union Republic hadn’t survived the crisis that the countries should have shared weal and woe but they began to regret helping neighboring countries and to preserve themselves. Second, external geographical relationship, the Cold War sanction of United States and “Independence” of socialist countries of China and Yugoslavia greatly weakened the cohesion of the Soviet Union. In Vladimir Putin’s words, dissolution of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe in 20th century.
In geographical pattern of today’s world, China is also at a location of geographical disadvantage which is similar to Wei Dynasty, Germany and Russian. There are only two ways to break the situation: first, Southeast Asia is the most important hinterland of the “Belt and Road” in the south, which is similar to the pattern of “Getting friends in southwest” proposed repeatedly in the Book of Changes, Qin Dynasty destroying Bashu (Two ancient cities in Sichuan) to the south and Bismarck opening up the railway corridor of Berlin-Bagdad-Istanbul. Second, the opposite route of Britain, Netherland and East India which got through the south front of Eurasia continental island to the west, including getting through commonwealth countries.
III. The fifth technological and industrial revolution - the essence of the Sino-US competition
(I) The fifth technological and industrial revolution is taking place.
The previous four technological and industrial revolutions have met the material demand of human from feeding themselves, wearing warm clothes, electrification of housing and traveling to social network. The fifth technological and industrial revolution with life technology and intelligent technology meets the higher demand of human —— “Survival and development with dignity.”
From the science, the fifth technological and industrial revolution will be a “New biological revolution”. From the technology, it will be a “Creation and regeneration revolution”. From the industry, it will be a “Bionic and regeneration revolution”. From the civilization, it will be a “regeneration and immortality revolution”. The fifth technological and industrial revolution is a technological revolution of changing the human itself and it will completely change human’s life concept and life style from study, work, family to lifetime. If the expected goal can be achieved, human civilization will enter “Regeneration Era”. The previous four technological and industrial revolutions have completely changed human’s ideology, life style, production method, world pattern and destiny of many nations. The fifth technological and industrial revolution implies huge economic and social benefits and its influence will exceed the previous four technological and industrial revolutions. The relevant research shows that the time, from now to about 2040, will be a critical period of development of the fifth technological and industrial revolution, and it is bringing profound changes of world development pattern.
(II) Why the United States and China are the protagonists
On the one hand, the complete experience of previous industrial revolutions has formed a relatively complete industrial system of the United States and China. Not only the end products can be made with quantify production, but also the intermediate products and production tools can be made with quantify production, which are beneficial to form the virtuous industry circle. The major countries in the world including China, United States, Britain and Germany have completed the first industrial revolution. But some countries, such as the United States, Japan and Germany, have missed the second industrial revolution. Some countries like Britain have missed the third industrial revolution. For the continuous fourth industrial revolution today, the United States and China have become the real protagonists because of the relatively complete information industry infrastructure, sizable market demand and the considerable volume of the scale of second and tertiary industry.
Table 5 Industrial revolution history of major countries in the world
On the other hand, the United States and China accumulate the most complete infrastructure in the world in the fourth industrial revolution, which is benefit to the occurrence of the fifth industrial revolution.
At present, the rising fifth technological and industrial revolution must develop based on the accumulation of infrastructure results of previous industrial revolutions, especially the more important information foundation laid in the fourth industrial revolution, such as networking, optical fiber, mobile phone and satellite. Although Japan and Germany also take good momentum, they lack enough foundation and strength to compete with China and the United States due to the lack of accumulation in the fourth industrial revolution. But in previous four technological and industrial revolutions, no other countries completed all previous four technological and industrial revolutions and entered the fifth technological and industrial revolution but China. Therefore, during the rise of the fifth technological and industrial revolution today, China and the United States become the protagonists because they have more complete foundation and conditions.
(III) Strengths of China and the United States and the contest between them
Now it is very clear that China and the US are two major opponents in world’s fifth industrial revolution. The struggle between the two powers is more a competition on science, technology, and industry than a simple trade war. China by no means has the luxry to hide its light under a bushel (otherwise the US would be too easy to be fooled ). The only way for China is to know itself as well as the US and take actions. The focus on the struggle for the fifth industrial revolution between the two parties must center around the areas of information technology (IT), artificial intelligence (AI), and life sciences (the Three Industries), and accordingly the focal points are on the research & development (R&D), transfer and transformation of R & D achievements, and infrastructure construction and market exploration for the Three Industries.
1. Real economy: rising vs. weakening
As a basic economic rule, a robust real economy is the key for a country to deal with economic crisis, get out of economic recession, and grasp the opportunity of a new industrial revolution. The US and many European countries are still trapped by the 2008 global financial crisis, of which the main reason is that the real economy is weakening and the advanced manufacturing industry has been deteriorating.
The US: a long history of “economic virtualization” leads to a long way to the revitalization of real economy. A fundamental change can be observed in the major forces for economic growth in the USA from the 1950s to present. From the 1950s to the 1970s, the rate of contribution by real economy to U.S. GDP was in a range of 66％-55％, but that in 2010 dropped to 38.43％, in which that by manufacturing industry was from 22％-27％ to 11.72％. On the contrary, in the same period, that by virtual economy increased from 15％-19％ to 32.97％, in which that by financial industry and real estate service industry was from 11％-14.9％ to 20.7％. As for the US, the increase of infrastructure construction cost index means the raise of payment for the reentrance into the lost areas of real economy, which to some extent reduces its advantages in the new industrial revolution.
China: pursuit for the advanced manufacturing industry leads to the rise of real economy. Since implementing the policy of reform and opening-up, China is dedicated to develop real economy with manufacturing industry as the core. In the past 20 years, especially since the country’s entrance to the WTO in 2001, China had made great achievements in real economy, especially those in the advanced manufacturing industry. According to the data of UN Statistics Division, China’s total value of industrial production in 1995 was less than USD 0.4 trillion, but that in 2013 was more than USD 4 trillion, a tenfold increase in the period. Based on this data, the rate of contribution by China industrial production to the global value are calculated to increase from less than 4% in 1995 to 20% in 2013. In 2011, China ranked first in the world by the value of industrial production, leaving the US, Japan, Germany, UK, French, and Italy behind all the way since 2001 years. In May 2015, the State Council issued Made in China 2025, in which it is indicated that China would be determined to be a major industrial power in the world, highlighting the advantages of real economy with manufacturing industry as the core.
2. Infrastructure: leading vs. overtaking
Infrastructures have played a key role in the previous industrial revolutions. Those for the fifth would be based on the achievements made in the previous four, especially the fourth industrial revolution, and their effect and influence upon human society would be unimaginably far-reaching.
AI Technologies: the fourth industrial revolution is extensively deepening, and the infrastructures for the global IT network made in this revolution are being developed with the characteristics of high rate, wide spread, broad coverage, and intelligent, and their strategic positions are more and more prominent. Therefore, China has been increasingly leading the competition. The 5G network is the representative of and the major force for the fifth industrial revolution, because it can not only improve the network speed but expand the capacity, which is beneficial for the development of the Internet of Things. With the 5G network, all connected vehicles and electrical devices can generate an ocean of big data, which can guarantee China to have the leading advantages in driverless car, AI, and other related areas, as well as the advantages in the fifth industrial revolution. It is reported that the 5G network cell sites in China are outnumbered those in USA by more than tenfold. The number of cell sites built in China merely in three months of 2017 was more than that of those built in US in the previous three years. Since 2015, China’s expenditure for the 5G network has exceeded that of USA by USD 24 billion; and China has built 350,000 cell sites, but the USA less than 30,000 .
Life Sciences: In the fifth industrial revolution, life science will lay the cornerstone for a new era, and it will be unquestionably the focus of competition among the great powers in the world, and that between China and USA will be most critical. With rich biological resources, China is leading in the global biotechnology, and it owns 10% of the global biogenic resources. According to the available statistics, China has 260,000 biological species, out of which 30,000 are of plant, 200,000 of animal, and 30,000 of microorganism. In addition, China is also a multiethnic nation of 1.3 billion population and its human genetic resources are not second to many other countries or regions. All those resources richen the materials for the development of life science and biotechnology in China. This advantage is irreplaceable and exclusive, comparing with many other countries (e.g. the USA) in the world.
3. R & D innovation: strength vs. potential
The breakthroughs in AI and life sciences need the drive from the research and development (R&D) innovation which requires not only the available strength but top engineer’s potential for advancing the R&D.
The R&D strength: This is based on intensive investment in the R&D and sufficient patents for invention. The globe-leading R&D innovations are more and more dependent on substantial investment in scientific research infrastructures and high-end precision equipment, and the government’s adequate investment in R&D is a guarantee for new innovation achievements. The Chinese government’s investment in R&D is vigorously increasing, and would catch up with and surpass that made by the U.S. government. According to the statistics of US National Science Foundation (NSF), in 2016 the U.S. government’s expenditure on R&D was USD 510.3 billion, which ranked first in the world; and that of the Chinese government was USD 237.8 billion, which ranked second in the world. From 2000 to 2016, the Chinese government’s expenditure for R&D had a twenty-fold increase, and the average annual compound growth rate was 21.3%; and in the same period, the U.S. government’s increase was less than two-fold, and the average annual compound growth rate was only 4.1%. Calculating by average annual compound growth rate of the Chinese government and that of the U.S. government since 2010, the Chinese government’s expenditure for R&D would be more than that of the U.S. government in 2024, ranking first in the world. Besides, according to the statistics of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), by the end of 2016 there were 9.72 million valid patents for invention in the world. As for the number of applications in 2016, China ranked first (1.26 million applications, only 170,000 in 2005), the US second (520,000 applications), Japan third (460,000 applications), South Korea fourth (230,000 applications), and Germany fifth (180,000 applications); and as for the number of patents approved in the year, China ranked first (320,000 patents), Japan second (290,000 patents), US third (280,000 patents), South Korea fourth (120,000 patents), and Germany fifth (100,000 patents). In fact, China ranked first in the world by either the number of patent applications or that of patents approved in the six consecutive years; and since 2015, China’s patents for invention outnumber the sum of US’s and Japan’s. It is estimated that around 2025 China would own 70-80% of patents for inventions in the world. China is playing a key role on the platform of the fifth industrial revolution because of its increasing R & D strength.
R&D Potential: This is especially critical for AI and life sciences which are the focuses of the fifth industrial revolution. The potential is mainly from a steady increase of engineers. In recent years, China took more efforts in cultivating engineers, and the achievements could be a par with those of US. According to the statistics of the US NSF, by the number of Bachelor’s degree granted in natural science and that in engineering in 2014, China ranked first (1.45 million), the EU8 second (570,000), USA third (380,000), Japan fourth (120,000), South Korea fifth (110,000); and the by the number of Ph.D. granted in the year, the EU8 ranked first (49,200), China second (31,800), the US third (29,800), Japan fourth (5,900), South Korea fifth (5,500). China’s potential for R&D and innovation is obviously advantageous, which can be comparable with that of US’. Moreover, the potential for R&D requires high IQ population. The studies on global population IQ done by some British and American experts in recent years suggests that East-Asians averagely have highest IQ in the world, not second to that of Europeans. On average, the cranial capacity of an adult East-Asian exceeded that of an adult Caucasian by one cubic inch. People of the highest IQ in the world were distributed in China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan; and they have an average IQ of 105. Moreover, in his recently-published book entitled Race Differences in Intelligence: An Evolutionary Analysis, Richard Lynn, professor emeritus of psychology at the University of Ulster, presents this conclusion: East-Asians have an average IQ of 105, which is highest in the world, and that of Europeans, with an average IP of 100, comes second. Furthermore, a new survey by the American Psychological Association in last year indicated that comparison of global IQ test suggested human races had difference in IQ, the largest gap was 50%, the IQ of East-Asians was averagely higher than that of Caucasian Americans and that of African Americans. The common conclusion from these observations is that East-Asians have obvious IQ advantage, which means that they have a great potential for R&D. The ancient Chinese people produced the four great inventions, and modern Chinese people have also made wonderful breakthroughs in scientific research. The potential of Chinese people for invention is more and more outstanding.
4. Market scale: strategic breaking vs. “impregnable fortress”
Market size is an indispensable factor for the fifth industrial revolution. China not only has a huge domestic market which shields against the fluctuations of overseas market, but also capable of actively exploring overseas market and taking the strategic opportunity. For example, to cope with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) initiative advocated by the US in Asian-Pacific region, China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative which covers 4.4 billion global population, accounting for 60% of the total in the world, and the economic aggregate of the countries or regions along the Belt and Road is USD 21 trillion, accounting for 30% of that in the world, thereby greatly enlarging the market size. According to the statistics, from 2000 to 2017, the U.S. market value amounted to USD 5756.4 billion, and the growth rate was 74.4%. Whereas the Chinese market value was also increasingly on-going and amounted to extraordinary USD 5422.3 billion, and the multiplication was eleven-and-half fold, which almost equals to the US market value.
5. Research finding commercialization: “triple helix” vs. “three-dimension triple helix”
Nowadays, the transfer and transformation of scientific and technological achievements attract close attention and various resources from the governments, research institutions, and enterprises, etc., around the world, because they reflect a country or region’s ability for innovation, competitiveness, and comprehensive strength.
Technology transfer and transformation in the US are rooted in the theory on the innovation triple helix model of “government-industry-university”. Through reinforcing the partnership of the government, enterprise, and university, the transfer and transformation are improved and the innovation is strengthened in the US. Whereas China has developed the theory on the 3D triple helix model which is more adaptable to Chinese development characteristics, i.e. the three triple helixes of “industrial park plus industry plus finance, technology plus capital plus industry, and government plus enterprise plus university” are comprehensively interweaved for advancing the transfer and transformation in China. Comparing with the triple helix of “government plus industry plus university”, the 3D triple helix involves more diverse factors, the interactions of those factors are further deepened, in which the government play a key role. Particularly, with the support of the government, the transfer and transformation are more advantageous in the critical technologies and major projects of the great national strategies such as those for AI and life sciences, and the corresponding services are more diversified. This means that China will show increasing strengths in the global competition of scientific and technological innovation in the future.
Based on the above analysis, we can see that China and the US are comparable in the strengths of many areas, and even China is leading in some areas. Against this background, the US may take the following defensive strategies in the competition of the fifth industrial revolution.
The US’ main defensive measures: Firstly, to resolutely safeguard the three temporarily leading areas of IT, AI, and life sciences and prevent China from learning the R&D of these areas. Secondly, to reinforce the investment in and transfer and transformation of the R&D of the Three Industries. According to the U.S. government’s financial policy, it is predictable that great reduction would be probably made in the expenditure for overseas aid, domestic welfare, and military defense but more investment would be put in the construction of infrastructures for R&D and the emerging industries. And thirdly, to encourage R&D, transfer and transformation of the Three Industries. Specifically, the U.S. government would assist enterprise in exploring the market, make use of the advantage of the financial system in which the stock market would benefit R&D and the growth of emerging industries.
US’ The main aggressive measures: Firstly, to prevent China from the R&D of the Three Industries by the ways such as limiting the exchanges of the researchers and developers and forbidding the export of the relevant technologies to China. Secondly, to restrict the Chinese enterprises leading the Three Industries with all kinds of excuses and measures. Thirdly, to prevent the Chinese government from politic and financial support for the Three Industries. Especially, the US would not like to see that the Chinese government issue favorable policies and provide huge capital for the construction of infrastructures for the R& D and the emerging industries; and for this reason, they would try to give all kinds of negative comments on the Chinese political system, financial policy, industry policy, entrepreneurship policy, with the aim of preventing China from developing the Three Industries. Fourthly, to impair the technology stocks of A-share markets and Hong Kong market, especially those for financing of the rising listed companies engaging in the Three Industries. And fifthly, to prevent China from enlarging the international technological integration and expanding market size by both establishing its own groups of partners and interfering China’s groups of partners, especially from cooperating with the countries and regions along the Belt and Road.
With this logic, the Chinese government also must take these countermeasures: Firstly, to reinforce the political system. Secondly, to strengthen the international cooperation. Thirdly, to put sufficient investment in the D & R. Fourthly, to enhance the construction of the infrastructures for the emerging industries and develop the ability for the transfer and transformation of the Three Industries. And fifthly, to provide adequate financial support to the R&D and the emerging industries.
6. Trump’s “re-industrialization” is a false proposition
In the past industrial revolutions, especially the third, i.e. that of electricity and heavy industry, were much dependent on proper infrastructure construction and huge capital accumulation, especially the “accumulation” of large capital. From this point, if the US would advocate the re-industrialization, it should first greatly promote infrastructure construction and put tremendous investments, because it should have enough “accumulation” of capital. According to the latest report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), currently the national debt of the United States makes up 78% of the GDP, in 2030 it would be 100%, and to 2048 it would be 152%, much higher than the peak (106% in 1946) after the World War II. Under this background, if the U.S. government would like to promote the construction of infrastructures and that of heavy industry, the following three channels might be applicable to the capital accumulation.
(1) To learn from Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong to obtain the capital accumulation from farmers, intellectuals, and government employees; if really doing so, Trump would sacrifice farmers’ interests and benefits and be the enemy of intellectuals and government employees, i.e. the elite class in the USA. Ridiculously, it seems that he has the intention to do so.
(2) To lean from Adolf Hitler and accumulate the capital from Jewish finance (Hitler expropriated 6-8 billion Deutsche Mark from Jewish, but in 1939 Germany’s gold and foreign exchange reserves valued only 500-600 million Deutsche Mark.)
(3) To learn from Japan after the Meiji Restoration and start a war for plundering capital, merely from China, Japan and Germany.
Trump’s “re-industrialization” might be slightly possible only through the above-mentioned three channels. However, the slight possibility is a complete impossibility in current international community and the “re-industrialization” must be a real “false promise”. In case that Trump and the following administrations realize the impossibility, they would be determined to compete against China for the Three Industries and the emerging industries. This is decisive and unavoidable in the current international situation.
IV. Would there be a future for Mankind?
The fifth industrial revolution would be the last chance for human being, because the IT, AI, and biotech in this revolution could radically change the situation of human society, including the way of life, culture, and politics, etc.
The latest IT technologies characterized with the 5G big data and block-chain will address the problem of asymmetrical information, realize the digitalization of human and credit, and then overturn the base for upper structure defined in Rousseau’s Social Contract. And robot, especially that integrates AI and life science, will create new type of human “life”, and the work of such human will break the base for production introduced in Das Kapital. If so, human being will be free from exploitation and slavery, and life sciences will great improve human being’s experience of life.
Based on the above-mentioned technologies and industries, human being would realize a society of “freedom, equality, and fraternity” and finally build up a community of shared future or happiness for mankind.
Observing from another angle, the above technologies would ensure the realization of (1) human longevity (including digitalized longevity and biological longevity) and (2) life-cloning (including human life cloning and AI life cloning), and the aforesaid (1) plus (2) would give a conclusion that human becomes god. The fundamental difference between human and materials is that human life is limited and material existence is forever. Human groups and societies are originated from reproduction and breasting. The current advancement of human science, technology, and industry will remove the limitation to human life, and human being will be completely free.
However, are humans still humans if they get the rights which belong to god? Do humans still need progress if they realize eternity? In that case, will humans return to a distopia society?
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